8. Market Analysis: Technical, Fundamental & Sentiment Analysis

Learn How Traders Analyze the Forex Market and Predict Price Movements

To trade Forex successfully — whether manually or with automated tools like The Easy Pip — you must understand how the market is analyzed.
There are three major forms of market analysis:

  • Technical Analysis
  • Fundamental Analysis
  • Sentiment Analysis

Each plays a different role in predicting price movement, identifying trends, and managing risk.

This chapter breaks down all three in simple, expert-level detail.

1. Technical Analysis Basics

Technical Analysis is the study of price charts to predict future movements.
It assumes that:

  •  Price reflects everything
  •  History tends to repeat itself
  • Market moves in trends

Traders use charts, patterns, and indicators to make decisions.

 Chart Types

1. Candlestick Charts (Most Popular)

Each candlestick shows:

  • Opening price
  • Closing price
  • Highest price
  • Lowest price
  • Bullish or bearish movement

Candlestick patterns help traders identify:

  • Reversals
  • Trend continuation
  • Market strength
  • Market psychology
2. Line Charts

Simple chart showing the closing prices over time.
Best for beginners and long-term trend analysis.

3. Bar Charts (OHLC)

Shows price range with vertical bars and horizontal ticks.
Useful for understanding volatility.

2. Key Concepts in Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance
Support

A price level where the market tends to stop falling and bounce upward.

Resistance

A price level where the market tends to stop rising and reverse downward.

Support and resistance levels help traders:

  • Set entries
  • Set stop loss
  • Set take profit targets

These are the backbone of technical trading.

Trends

Price moves in three directions:

  • Uptrend (higher highs & higher lows)
  • Downtrend (lower highs & lower lows)
  • Sideways trend (range-bound)

Recognizing trends early increases profitability.

 Trendlines

Trendlines help:

  • Identify trend direction
  • Predict future support/resistance
  • Filter bad trades
Chart Patterns

Popular patterns include:

  • Double Top / Double Bottom
  • Head and Shoulders
  • Flags & Pennants
  • Wedges
  • Triangles

These patterns give early signals of market continuation or reversal.

3. Indicators (Beginner-Friendly)

Indicators assist traders by analyzing price mathematically.

Here are the most important:

Moving Averages (MA)

Shows the average price over a period.

Types:

  • Simple Moving Average (SMA)
  • Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Uses:

  • Identify trends
  • Generate buy/sell signals
  • Act as dynamic support/resistance
Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Measures momentum and identifies:

  • Overbought areas (RSI above 70)
  • Oversold areas (RSI below 30)

Useful for spotting reversals.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Shows momentum changes and trend direction.

Useful for:

  • Timing entries
  • Spotting momentum shifts
Bollinger Bands

Measure volatility and price extremes.

Good for:

  • Breakout strategies
  • Reversal strategies
  • Volatility measurement

4. Fundamental Analysis Basics

Fundamental Analysis studies the economic, financial, and political factors that influence currency value.

It focuses on real-world events that impact market movement.

 Major Components of Fundamental Analysis
1. Economic Indicators

These reflect a country’s economic performance:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Inflation (CPI)
  • Employment reports (NFP in the U.S.)
  • Retail sales
  • PMI (manufacturing & services)

Better-than-expected data → strengthens currency.
Worse-than-expected data → weakens currency.

2. Interest Rates

Central bank decisions heavily influence currencies.

Higher rates → stronger currency
Lower rates → weaker currency

Traders closely watch:

  • Federal Reserve (USD)
  • ECB (EUR)
  • Bank of England (GBP)
  • Bank of Japan (JPY)

Interest rate expectations often move the market more than the actual decision.

3. Monetary Policy Statements

Central bank speeches and forecasts directly affect price.

Examples:

  • Federal Reserve Chair speech
  • ECB press conference
  • BOE inflation report

Messages hinting at future rate changes cause major volatility.

4. Geopolitical Events

Examples:

  • Elections
  • Wars
  • Trade agreements
  • Political instability

These events create uncertainty, causing safe-haven currencies (USD, CHF, JPY) to rise.

5. Natural Disasters & Unexpected Events

Events like pandemics, earthquakes, or climate disruptions can:

  • Affect economic strength
  • Increase market volatility

Impact currency value

5. Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment Analysis measures how traders feel about the market.

Sometimes price moves not because of data, but because traders collectively expect something.

Market Sentiment Reveals:
  • Fear or greed
  • Confidence or uncertainty
  • Optimism or pessimism
  • Risk-on or risk-off behavior
Risk-On vs Risk-Off Sentiment
Risk-On Sentiment

Traders take risks and buy assets like:

  • AUD
  • NZD
  • GBP
  • Stocks
Risk-Off Sentiment

Traders seek safety and buy:

  • USD
  • JPY
  • CHF
  • Gold (XAU/USD)

Understanding sentiment helps traders avoid trading against the crowd.

6. Combining All Three Analyses

Professional traders—and advanced systems like The Easy Pip—combine:

✔ Technical analysis for entry timing
✔ Fundamental analysis for directional bias
✔ Sentiment analysis for market context

When all three align, the probability of successful trades increases dramatically.